Dr. Polleit's BOOM & BUST REPORT
independent • competent • return-oriented • intelligible
Welcome!
Do you wish to invest your money wisely?
Are you looking for independent, well-informed and eye-opening analyses about global financial
and economic events?
Are you looking for concrete, hands-on recommendations to improve your return on investment?
If your answer is yes to one of these questions, then you are in the right place!
Dr. Polleit's BOOM & BUST REPORT gives you forward-looking insights that help you make
better investment decisions.
Read about really important issues.
Improve your understanding.
Focus on the returns on capital.
Dr. Polleits BOOM & BUST REPORT is indispensable in economically and financially challenging times.
I would be very grateful if I can make you a fan of Dr. Polleit's BOOM & BUST REPORT!
Best regards
Dr. Thorsten Polleit
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- independent
- competent
- committed to the truth
- return-oriented
- intelligible
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Issue 3 October 2024
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Dr. Polleit's BOOM & BUST REPORT
Biweekly publication – 24 issues per year
I write Dr. Polleit's BOOM & BUST REPORT for investors who really want to get to the bottom of things:
for those who are looking for sound analyses on international economic and financial markets, who wish to study independent analyses that do not shy away from contrary, sometimes even radical assessments.
Dr. Polleit's BOOM & BUST REPORT is a long-held idea of mine, in the truest sense of the word, a
dream project. It is the result of my many years of first-hand experience in international banking, in commodity markets, in scientific research and teaching.
If you read Dr. Polleit's BOOM & BUST REPORT regularly, you will understand the financial world better,
acquire valuable knowledge, be able to invest your money wisely and successfully,
especially in increasingly challenging times.
Dr. Polleit's BOOM & BUST REPORT is made for you: as an investor, as an interested observer of world events.
I would be glad if I succeed in turning you into an enthusiastic reader of
Dr. Polleit's BOOM & BUST REPORT!
“People are annoyed that truth is so simple; they should remember that they still have enough trouble to apply it practically to their benefit.”
Johann Wolfgang von Goethe (1749–1832)
INVESTING
“The big profits I have made were through very long planning, waiting and watching.”
Philip A. Fisher (1907–2004)
A lot of ink has already been spilled about how to invest properly. Quite rightly so. Investing is a rather challenging task. Many people assume that they are investing, but they are merely speculating.
Please let me give you a few insights into the investment philosophy that guides and permeates Dr. Polleit's BOOM & BUST REPORT – in particular its analyses and recommendations:
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Most investors are not in a position to consistently outperform the market, they tend to underperform.
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Only a few investors are “masters of market timing”. Most people end up underperforming with this strategy.
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The successful investor does not act hastily, impatiently, and he does not follow markets’ “herd instinct” easily.
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Pricing on the capital markets is driven by expectations: It is not the here and now that counts, but rather what the future holds in store.
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You should only invest if the price (for example the amount of money you pay for a stock, bond or troy ounce of gold) is less than its value.
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The gap between value and price is your “margin of safety”. It boosts your returns and reduces the risk of incurring losses.
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What is the value? Value is what the investor needs to figure out. Coming up with an approximately correct value estimate is key to the investment success.
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The risk that the investor faces is not the short-term ups and downs of the stock markets (“volatility”). Rather, it consists of a permanent loss of capital.
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It is of the essence to avoid permanent capital losses, but not necessarily to avoid high volatility.
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Do not get seduced by the teachings of the “modern financial market theory” (especially the “modern portfolio theory”), it misleads the investor.
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If you know the value of your investment (at least approximately), you can literally sleep better, especially when things get turbulent on the markets.
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The future is full of surprises. The investor should therefore not overestimate himself and seek a certain degree of diversification.
Anyone who invests cannot avoid looking at the “big picture” – such as geopolitical shifts, central banks’ monetary policy, governments’ market interventions, etc. However, when it comes to gauging the importance of such factors, I hold a rather critical and differentiated view:
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Not all the news that hit the investor are relevant. On the whole, they are typically quite irrelevant.
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The media and financial market journalists are doing quite a good job at diverting investors' attention from the issues that are important.
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Central banks are the major source of financial and economic instabilities, as they manipulate interest rates and debase the purchasing power of money.
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Today’s economic policies are interventionist or even outright (neo-)socialist in nature, distorting market processes and firms’ capital allocation.
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The investor's attention must always be on determining value – irrespective of whether you invest in stocks, bonds, precious metals or real estate.
Much of the financial and economic world is in transition. Past experience may no longer be a reliable guide as far as the future is concerned. To do justice to an elevated level of uncertainty, I make use of the following “working conjectures” in the investment process:
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Achieving a positive real (i.e. inflation-adjusted) return on capital employed will become increasingly difficult in the years ahead.
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While the global fiat money system is vulnerable to crises, we should be careful to prematurely bet on its imminent collapse.
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Governments and their central banks are increasingly intervening in the economic and financial system, …
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… thereby turning off what little is left of the corrective market forces, so that price distortions can become bigger and stay for longer.
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That said, a major crash cannot be ruled out, but its probability of occurrence is significantly reduced under governments’ policy of interventionism.
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Expect that governments and their central banks will continue to reduce the purchasing power of official currencies through inflation.
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Investing in productive capital (in the simplest case, company shares) is one option for the investor to meet the trials and tribulations that come with inflation.
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Gold is the “mankind’s ultimate means of payment”. Expect that gold will retain its elevated monetary status in the coming years.
VALUE
Why Dr. Polleit's BOOM & BUST REPORT?
„Sooner or later the upswing triggered by the expansion of credit must come to a collapse, and the adjustment process, which is called the decline of the economy, will be all the more painful and take more time the longer the expansion of credit has been continued ...
Ludwig von Mises (1883–1971), Nationalökonomie, 1940
Why should you read Dr. Polleit's BOOM & BUST REPORT? The best way to find the answer is to ask yourself and answer the following questions:
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Do you value reliable information and well-founded analyses to improve your investment decisions?
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Are you looking for factual, balanced and forward-looking insights into economic and capital market events?
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Do you want to better understand the international financial and economic system, and would you like to build up and expand your economic and capital market-oriented knowledge?
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Do you no longer trust the and recommendations of banks and financial institutions?
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Are you looking for a newsletter that tells you what really is important, doesn't use unnecessary words, and doesn't unnecessarily take up your valuable time?
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Do you want analyses that do not falsely pretend that there are “tricks” and “tips” that help you get rich overnight?
If you answer “yes” to even some of these questions, then Dr. Polleit's BOOM & BUST REPORT is the right source of information for you!
Independent
Dr. Polleit's BOOM & BUST REPORT is an independent publication. I am entirely free from any government, corporate and/or media influence. My sole obligation is to my readers.
Knowledgeable
As an economist and investor with experience in theory and practice, I am familiar with the analysis and evaluation of economic, political and capital market-related data – and this is what makes Dr. Polleit's BOOM & BUST REPORT special.
Fact-based
Dr. Polleit's BOOM & BUST REPORT continually analyzes the international data situation. Particular attention is paid to the banking system, money and credit markets as well as the foreign exchange, derivatives and raw materials markets.
To the point
Dr. Polleit's BOOM & BUST REPORT deliberately pays attention to the issues that really matter to the investors – so they can concentrate on what's important to them and do not get distracted.
Committed to the truth
All analyses and recommendations in Dr. Polleit's BOOM & BUST REPORT are prepared with the greatest possible care. We do not allow ourselves to come forward with any inconsiderate judgments.
Intelligible
Economic and financial market developments are complex. I therefore do my best to illustrate and explain all topics as simply and understandably as possible – so that you can read and understand Dr. Polleit's BOOM & BUST REPORT most easily.
Return-oriented
Dr. Polleit's BOOM & BUST REPORT helps you to make better investment decisions, improve your returns on investment: identify opportunities, take advantage of them, avoid costly mistakes.
BACKGROUND
As an investor I feel a rather close association with the concept of ‘value investing’ – which is related to names such as, for instance, Warren E. Buffett (* 1930), Charles T. Munger (1924–2023), Philip A. Fisher (1907–2004) and Joel Greenblatt (* 1957) – and which means, as Joel Greenblatt puts it, essentially the following: “The secret to investing is to figure out the value of something and then pay a lot less.”
As an economist, I stand pretty much in the tradition of the Austrian School of Economics – as represented by Ludwig von Mises (1881-1971), Murray N. Rothbard (1926-1995) and Hans Hermann Hoppe (* 1949). The theoretical considerations of this school aim to identify and disseminate the fundamental pillars of a humane, peaceful and productive coexistence among people.
I have always been interested in combining theory and practice for analysing and investing in capital markets. For me, international financial developments, changes in the sphere of credit and money, play a key role in this context – something that is well supported by the theory of the Austrian School. In other words: money and credit matter when it comes to the investment process.
My goal is to provide readers of Dr. Polleit's BOOM & BUST REPORT with the knowledge that will enable them to invest their money wisely and profitably. I am convinced that with sound theories and practicable concepts you can, over the long-term, achieve financial independence, allowing you to lead a self-determined life, regardless of what specific goals you are pursuing.
The time in which we live – I like to call it “the time of the anti-enlightenment” – makes it difficult for many people to find access to “good theories” and the right investment approaches. Unfortunately, modern economics makes it very hard for people to acquire a sound understand of what is really going on in the world of money and finance – with rather negative consequences for peoples’ investments.
Dr. Polleit's BOOM & BUST REPORT makes a difference. It provides you with well-informed interpretations and perspectives so that you can ultimately make sound investment decisions for yourself. I am convinced that this will become increasingly important for your investment success in what lies ahead – as the risks of suffering capital losses due to insufficient or even incorrect knowledge will increase drastically.
Every issue of Dr. Polleit's BOOM & BUST REPORT is written with the intent to be an asset to its readers, to provide them with the most reliable and most useful knowledge. This is the standard that I personally set for my analysis and educational work, and against which I wish to be measured.
ABOUT
“Act only according to that maxim through which you can at the same time want it to become a general law.”
Immanuel Kant (1724–1804),
Foundations for the Metaphysics of Morals, 1785
I am honorary professor of economics at the University of Bayreuth (www.rw.uni-bayreuth) and president of the Ludwig von Mises Institute Germany (www.misesde.org). From 1997 to the beginning of 2012, I worked as an economist and investment advisor in international investment banking, thereafter in the international precious metals trading business until 2023.
As a former economist of one of the world’s leading investment banks, I have advised institutional investors worldwide for many years (such as insurance companies, investment companies, hedge funds, capital market funds, but also finance departments of large companies and government agencies), focussing on making forecasts for business cycles, stocks, interest rates, FX and commodity markets.
I have always wished to test my theoretical insights in practice (and proving them correct), and this let me to co-found an alternative investment fund at the end of 2012. After a successful development, I left the project in 2019. Since then, I have been active as ‘privat investor’, behind the scenes, so to speak, basically following the theoretical and conceptual ideas that you find in Dr. Polleits BOOM & BUST REPORT.
I studied economics at the Westphalian Wilhelms University in Münster and received my doctorate in 1997 from Professor Dr. Manfred Borchert (1939–2017). His doctor father was Professor Dr. Ernst Heuss (1922–2010), scholar of the well-known ordoliberal economist Walter Eucken (1891–1950) – the advisor to Ludwig Erhard (1897–1977), the first economics minister and second chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany.
Since 2009 I have been an Associate Scholar at the Ludwig von Mises Institute, Auburn, US Alabama. In 2012 I received The O. P. Alford III Prize in Political Economy. In October 2012 I founded the Ludwig von Mises Institute Deutschland. My main areas of interest and teaching are capital market theory, monetary theory, dogmas in economics, the Austrian School and epistemology.
I have been happily married since 2008, and we have three children. I am a devout Christian.